Back in 2011, I made a PowerPoint presentation entitled “Citizens Disaster Awareness” where I warned of the coming of multiple, interconnected disasters, including epidemics, civil unrest, extreme weather, and economic deterioration. I also wrote a two-part series titled “Storm Warning” warning of exactly the conditions we now face. Such presentations were not well received and few took them seriously. Human nature is to hear what we want to believe and reject what we don’t want to believe. A true survivor is one who is more apt to accept unpleasant possibilities and question optimistic predictions. Politicians survive by telling the people what they want to believe even when they know that

1. Very bad things are happening, and
2. They are not going to be able to prevent them or help you much when they happen.

When Live Free USA was organized, back in the 1960’s we had only two major survival threats to be concerned with, they were a nuclear war with the USSR, and communist inspired civil unrest at home. The economy was healthy, we were healthy, there was no terrorism, crime was limited, and we had a normal amount of bad weather. Back then, America was the unrivaled power in the world, and the future looked bright. By the dawn of the Twenty-first Century we faced a plethora of threats and ongoing disasters that have multiplied in the past two decades. The world as we know it has already ended. There are far too many interconnect threats to life and freedom to prevent catastrophic development for us and our children. At the end of my 2011 presentation a slide said that “we are firmly attached to an inclined plane wrapped helically around a central core”. Translation: “we're screwed”!

Here are my top ten threats to life and freedom for America in the next ten years and beyond.

#1: China

The objective of the Chinese Communist Party is world domination, using its economic and technological power. Americans—and all other people—would be subject to tyranny beyond the dreams of Hitler or Stalin. The day before the US exited from Afghanistan, Chinese diplomats were posing for photos with Taliban leaders. China is now equal, or slightly superior, to the USA, economically and militarily. They are not a “trading partner”, they are an enemy far more dangerous than the old USSR ever was. They use social media to create confusion, hate and division in America. They use the wealth that we have given them to bribe foreign politicians, infiltrate schools, and buy into corporations. They profited from the pandemic while our economy was ravaged. The Chinese Communists don’t need to conquer the world, they are just buying it. They are the primary source of drugs that drive crime in our cities. Most the threats listed below are either caused or deliberately exacerbated by China’s war on America. It may already be too late.

• Probability: Ongoing and immediate
• Severity: Total loss of freedom, privacy, and economic independence

#2: Pandemics

Before 2019 scientists predicted that a world-wide pandemic was inevitable. It was at the top of our previous “threat matrix” lists. Nothing has changed! The world population was not thinned out enough by Covid19 to reduce the chances of another, maybe even more deadly pandemic next year or in a few years. It is just as “inevitable” as it was in 2019. The economy and civilization cannot afford a repeat, but it’s still inevitable. The population density, travel frequency, and constant emergence of new pathogens will make this a new normal. This is how nature regulates over-population. Some scientists predict that the population at the end of this century will be the same as it was it the start of the twentieth century.

• Probability: 50% in the next ten years, inevitable within 20 years
• Severity: 20 to 40% reduction in world population. Massive political and economic chaos.

#3: Civil Unrest

The recent pandemic generated a surge in civil unrest, but this was only a symptom of a general and world-wide state of political discontent. Climate change, food shortages, economic decline, and crime, all exacerbated by communist agitation and divisive social media will continue to escalate violence and destruction. Major disasters and economic events may explode into full-scale revolutions. Police and even military forces may be unable to protect otherwise peaceful communities. If civilians are unable to defend themselves and their homes, draconian governmental interventions may end freedom as we know it.

• Probability: ongoing and increasing world-wide
• Severity: Urban and suburban fatalities and property damage, and significant economic and political impact.

#4: Economic Decline

Simply put: Earth has enough resources to support about 5 billion people, and we have 7.5 billion and growing. We have too many people fighting over too few resources. The economy is already a myth. Redistribution cannot do much. New technology is buying time, but there is not enough sunshine, wind, or wood to power civilization of 7 billion people at this level. There is not enough arable land or water to feed that many adequately. This is the ultimate, unavoidable economy reality. Wealth is resources developed into product (food, homes, etc.) and we don’t have enough to go around. Two years after Pearl Harbor eight battle ships was two-day ship production for American industry. In four years America destroyed Japan and Germany, while saving the USSR. Twenty years after 9-ll ground zero is still not reconstructed, and the Taliban is victorious after a twenty-year war. This should tell us all about the end of American economic supremacy.

• Probability: Ongoing and intensifying towards collapse.Severity: declining living standards, shortages, mass migrations, famine, and riots.

#5: Cyber Attacks and EMP

The recently cyber-attacks on hospitals, oil pipelines, and power grids was just the tip of the spear. These were conducted by third party, ransomware groups, but they are nothing compared to the potential, cyber-war weapons that are already inside our critical systems. Many cyber weapon programs can hide or lay dormant, or even travel through the web seeking a specific target. They may be used as part of a state coordinated attack, or the actions of terrorists. The economy can be destroyed with a click of a mouse. Your water supply, power supply, fuel supply, or food supply can be interrupted for extended periods. Planes can be brought down, and yes, civilization can be brought to chaos from a keyboard. How a large-scale electromagnetic pulse (EMP) would affect modern electronic systems is subject to considerable debate. An EMP can be generated from the sun, or by detonation of an EMP/ nuclear weapon at high altitude. In our highly wired world an EMP could be put us back to nineteenth century technology.

• Probability: Cyber-attacks will increase and impact every sector of life. The chances of a large scale EMP even range from 20 to 50%

#6: War

Back in the 1960’s when Live Free USA was founded, nuclear war was the primary driver for survival preparations. Now, as we are beset by multiple threats, it is easy to forget that the United States, Russia, and China still have thousands of nuclear armed missiles ready to launch. In addition we now have a growing number of rogue states with limited, but still deadly nuclear weapons. There are plenty of scenarios that could initiate a limited or unlimited nuclear exchange. The world is far less stable than it was during the cold war. Leon Panetta, former US Secretary of Defense, recently stated that “America is in more danger today than at any time since World War Two”.

• Probability: 50% for large-scale world-wide non-nuclear, 20% for limited nuclear exchange, and 10% for unlimited nuclear war within the next ten years.
• Severity: Ranging from significant destruction and loss of life to the end of civilization as we know it.

#7: Revolution

In the Jan/Feb issue of American Survivor I wrote the article “Is America Headed for Another Revolution?” I based this on my studies of the underlying conditions that sparked revolution in the past. There were a lot of small cracks in the socioeconomic system that were being magnified by social media. These divisions and discontent were being
exploited by China and Russia through disinformation and bots that spread hate and confusion. The pandemic was the match that initiated the mild/semi-insurrections of 2020. Certainly politicians, and foreign agents poured gasoline on every dispute. Economic decline, shortages, natural disasters, and grid failures will continue to fuel unrest and violence throughout the world. With the exception of the one in 1776, few revolutions have ended with expanded freedom. Most of the world’s population today is oppressed and desperate.

• Probability: More than 50% in the next ten years for all countries including the United States due to economic instability.
• Severity: Revolutions are unlikely to improve conditions and may result in the rise of oligarchies, and oppression.

#8: Terrorist Attacks

Terrorist are certain to be emboldened by victory in Afghanistan. The adjoining, unstable Pakistan with its extremist population and nuclear weapons provided the opportunity for nuclear terror in the future. The pandemic must inspire the imagination of would-be bioterrorists. The use of drones and even remotely controlled planes and trucks provide new methods of delivery. Imagine what a major terror attack could have done in the midst of the pandemic and civil unrest. Technology and our dependence on it is a major force multiplier for even small groups of misguided people.

• Probability: Inevitable.
• Severity: Ranging from bombings and shootings, to biological and even nuclear attacks.

#9: Extreme Weather

In the 1970’s the world averaged about 711 weather related storms, hurricanes, floods, droughts, tornadoes per year. From 2000 to 2009 the average was 3,536. Regardless of the cause, the climate is changing for the worst. Yes, the climate has changed many times over the centuries, but each change has caused massive social and political upheaval, wars, and migrations. Whole civilizations have been lost. Our existing, over populated, technologically dependent civilization is far more vulnerable than the more self-reliant societies of the past. Not only do we need to survive the individual weather events, we also need to cope with the unrest, chaos, pandemics, and economic decline that results.

• Probability: Ongoing and unpreventable
• Severity: Devastating. Famine, droughts, mass migrations, revolutions, wars, and whole areas becoming uninhabitable.

#10: Rampant Crime

The criminalized society and drug cartel financed gangs now control many major cities. They have such financial, political, and social influence that mayors, governors, and even presidents are afraid to mention “gangs” as the source of crime. Honest citizens are carjacked and beaten with impunity. Stray bullets kill children. Working tax paying citizens and business’s flee the cities leaving only criminals and welfare families. Thanks to Google Earth and Facebook, criminals are able to reach out into suburban and rural communities that once felt safe. Police funding will continue to dwindle while gang finances grow. Armed citizens are the last line of defense against anarchy.

• Probability: Ongoing, increasing and self-evident.
• Severity: Urban areas abandoned to criminal gangs. Suburban and rural areas fortified. Criminal cartels become major political forces as the economy declines.

Conclusion

Back in 2011, most of the above threats (except for terrorism) were not yet recognized or were just on the horizon. The tendency towards denial, and the “normalcy bias” forced them from the public mind, and survivalists were outliers. The fact is that nothing has gotten better or safer in the world in the past decade, and there is no reason to expect them to do so in this century. We hear people talk about a new normal, implying that things will settle down into some less chaotic stable state. This is wishful thinking. Most of the above threats are already happening, and the others are mathematical certainties due to the limits of Earth’s resources, the population density, and consumption rates. The new normal as defined below will tolerate only survivalists.

Normal: a state of continuous, multiple and increasingly devastating natural and manmade disasters and the end of the world as we knew it.