When the current crisis is past the odds of another pandemic or other world-wide emergency are exactly the same as they were the day before this one started. There is absolutely no excuse for a sigh of relief, or period of apathy.

I was talking with a few long-time members a few weeks before the coronavirus outbreak prohibited meetings and closed the stores. I mentioned that I had a stock of N95 masks and latex gloves at home and a few in my pockets.  I said “as am sure you all do too”, but instead of hearing “oh yea” or “absolutely” I got uncomfortable silence.  I realized that while I had gotten lip service, nods and even applause for my books, articles and presentations, many had ignored or procrastinated on actually following my recommendations.  Of course, by the time of that conversation N95 respirators and latex gloves were already impossible to find.  Yes! I actually meant that people needed to do the things that I advocated NOW (years ago) not wait until the emergencies occurred.  As a Safety Manager in industry, I was constantly fighting to keep employees safe by wearing safety-glasses, and safety-shoes. The employee’s priority was comfort over safety, until it was too late.  While in Oakland California examining how the factory there was recovering from the 1994 Northridge earthquake, I visited a local big-box store, and found earthquake preparedness kits on a “closeout sale” collecting dust as apathy had already set in.  Over my fifty-plus years of advocating, writing about, and teaching emergency preparedness I have been subject to disparagement and even derision.  It is human nature to not want to think about bad things. It is human nature to put off preparedness in favor of immediate needs. Disasters are things that happen to other people at other times, right?

Nature and human nature dictate that there will be a next major emergency and human nature dictates that many humans will not be prepared for it. Natural disasters are just nature’s way of adjusting geological, and biological imbalances. It’s nothing personal, but nature doesn’t care what gets destroyed (civilization) or what gets killed (us) in the proses.  Man-made disasters are the product of human pride, complacency, greed, hubris and arrogance. We make them happen or we let them happen and we make them worse. They are unavoidable because humans are human.

History tells us that after major disasters a period of lethargy and over confidence sets in.  It is natural for people and governments to focus on preparing for the most recent disaster at the expense of recognizing and preparing for other types of threats. FEMA was focused on the nuclear threat when 9/11 happened, they were prepared for Terrorism when Katrina hit the Gulf Coast. They have been focused on climate related issues until the pandemic. We can be sure that FEMA will focus on being more prepared for the next (there will be a next) pandemic, they will be less prepared for other mass disasters including cyber-attacks, nuclear events, mass civil disorder and other “surprise disasters”.  Disasters are by nature, unpredictable in character and scope, and it is impossible for any national or state government to have everything and everyone needed to respond to every possible scenario.  In reality a major disaster like the current one will deplete resources, damage the economy, and create social instability, that makes further disasters more likely.

For those of you who ignored our recommendations in the past and were lucky enough to get through this disaster, now is the time to get serious about preparedness!  You have survived a “near miss” that should be a wakeup call not an excuse for complacency and procrastination.  You have been granted this opportunity to save yourself and your family in the future. Some get a second chance, few get a third.

  For those of you who were prepared and used your acquired skills and equipment to ride out the virus and the secondary effects of shortages, disorder, and unemployment, this is the time to restock and rededicate to preparedness like never before. The next disaster could be next week, next year or a few years off, and yes it could be even worse and of longer duration.

Again: being able to shelter in place and survive completely isolated from society and completely independent of the grid for food, water, sanitation, medical care, police protection, and other critical needs for from 60 to 90 days (minimum)  is the ONLY way to survive most serious emergencies.

Again: being able to evacuate from your home and community in the event that your home is destroyed or unsafe is a necessity, but should be avoided when possible.

Surviving one disaster does not make you any safer or less likely to be faced with another-one, but it should make you smarter tougher and more prepared

While you can’t shoot a virus or a hurricane, civil unrest often follows any kind of disaster and may kill as many or more than the original cause of a disaster. Having some form of firearm available must be part of your preparedness. Socio-economic disruption generates increased crime and the potential for civil disorder when police response may be limited or unavailable. I such cases you are responsible for the protection of your own life and that of loved ones.

Finally: we hope that we will receive more support from the public and more active support from our members after this first example of the new normal for the twenty-first century.  Membership has been declining for the past several years and members (even officers) have put very few hours into helping us. We are the only not-for-profit, tax-deductible organization dedicated to promoting individual and family emergency preparedness, yet our future survival is in doubt?  We have never received a sponsorship, grant or significant contribution.  We can only hope to be around to inform and educate good citizens to face future survival challenges.

What Has Past Is Prologue

It’s not like we didn’t see this coming. The inevitably of a world-wide pandemic has been addressed in multiple ways for the past decade in issues of American Survivor. These back issues are available to all online members.

• Asymmetrical Disaster, May/June 2019
• Hunkering Down or Bugging Out: Jan/Feb 2019
• Almost Human Extinction, Sept/Oct 2018
• Surprise Disasters, July/Aug 2017
• How Prepared is America, Sept/Oct 2016
• Descent into Chaos, Jan/Feb 2015
• Ebola and Other Frights, Nov/Dec 2014
• Aftermath: Recovery from Disaster, Nov/Dec 2014
• Viruses: Double Trouble for Humanity, May June 2013
• Practical Hazmat Protection (including decontamination, proper us of N95 masks and six ways to protect against Nuclear, Chemical and Biological contamination) ,May/June 2012

Back in 2013  I published an article titled “Viruses Double Trouble for Civilization” in which I pointed out the similar side-effects of a biological virus epidemic and a wide-spread computer virus or cyberattack. My main point was that the psychological, sociological and economic effects of ether one would be more catastrophic than the immediate effect of the biological or technological virus itself. While the full extent and impact of the Coronavirus outbreak has yet to be determined it is already obvious that my original predictions were accurate.  The US and world stock markets are tumbling, oil stock prices have tanked, and the world’s second largest economy has virtual shutdown. China, being a totalitarian, communist, dictatorship has initiated total control of information disseminated on social media and arrested those who disseminate views critical of the government’s response.  Chines resistance organizations claim that the infection and death tolls are being greatly under reported. Foreign Corporations doing business in China or investing there are rethinking their “global economy” operations as there supply chains are broken. Even if this epidemic is controlled, the effects on the global political and economic community will be immense. The Coronavirus has several aspects that are ideal for ether a natural or man-made epidemic pathogen.

• It is new and there are no known cures or vaccinations on-hand or in the pipeline.
• It spreads from person to person though the air, although it is not known how close contact must be or if it remains on surfaces for any length of time.
• It can be spread from a person who has not yet exhibited symptoms and therefor can contact hundreds of people before the carrier become aware that they are ill.

While authorities reassure the public that this virus is less dangerous than the “ordinary flu”, there drastic measures indicate fear, if not panic. N95 facemasks* are sold out and rationed in China and are in high demand throughout the US. All of Chinas neighbors have closed their border, including even North Korea. In the US, participation in large social and sports gatherings has already started to show decline. While this particular outbreak may or may not result in the catastrophic effects of postulated in my original article (below), it will certainly impact the economic and political climate in many ways. The general disaster preparedness and self-reliance steps advocated by Live Free USA together with the ability to stay home without outside contact for from thirty to sixty days must be attained, and maintained by every responsible family.

Original Text from Our 2013 Article

Virus is a derivative of the Latin word for poison.  This is an accurate description of what its electronic and biological forms can do to life and life as we know it.

Introduction

Even if we put aside the obvious threats of a changing climate, crumbling economy and the decline in food, water and energy supplies, there are two major and highly probable disasters that could end civilization as we know it even as we struggle with these other issues. Both of these threats come from destructive entities known as viruses.  The first danger is from the more traditional biological virus that has plagued (pun intended) civilization for centuries. The second is the more recent term “computer virus” that has very recent origins, but is no less of a threat.  These threats are greatly compounded by the highly populated, centralized and technologically depended society that only developed in the latter half of the 20^th century.

Biological Viruses

For the purposes of this discussion we will include viruses and bacterial forms of infectious disease.

Probability and Sources

Most epidemiologists and the Center for Disease Control (CDC) state that it is just a matter of when not if a massive, worldwide epidemic occurs.  Based on the actions of governmental agencies in planning and stockpiling medications, this is their worst fear.  The combination of population densities and world travel guarantee that any virulent and potent biological agent will spread and be out of control before it is even detected.  The sudden emergence and rapid spread of the Zika virus is indicative of this potential. Plagues in medieval Europe and Asia killed from one to two thirds of the populations before the thinned population and surviving immune systems burned them out.  Modern medications and sanitation systems have reduced the occurrences and severity of plagues for the past few centuries, but these very defenses’ have created the probability of truly widespread and disastrous epidemics in our time.  The combination of an over-populated world located mainly in over concentrated cities and decades of being over protected with disinfectants and over medicated with antibiotics leaves us like a growth medium in a Petri dish with weakened immune systems Any new virus will find a “target rich environment” in today’s populations.  Modern mass transportation means that every one of us comes into contact with the biological residue left by hundreds and thousands of people.  Potential illness and death fly from Europe and Africa, take the buses and the train, ride the elevator and waist on shopping carts, door handles and products.  Of course most of these biological agents are harmless or cause only minor illnesses, but sooner or later (probably sooner) one of them will not be so harmless.  There are millions of unknown viruses and mutations that have not been recognized, much less prepared for that could take root.  Medical laboratories are continuing to experiment with various biological agents in their efforts to cure or treat existing diseases.  Many of these altered viruses would find the human body with no defenses if accidentally released.  Smallpox (Variola Major) was declared “eradicated” in 1980 and inoculations ended, but there are small stocks of the virus kept by the Russians and the US.  There may still be other hidden reserves. We now have a population with no immunities. An accidental release of such material or the deliberate spread of them by some unstable employees could end life as we know it or even life period.  And of course there are the rogue nations and terrorists who already have a variety of potent biological agents available.  Tuberculosis is still common in the third world nations and is highly contagious. Massive refuge populations are now flowing from those places to Europe and America. Many of these people may be carriers.  When you consider the above   realities, it is truly a miracle the biological “big one” has not struck already.  Being involved in the Emergency Medical Systems and community response planning for urban areas, I can tell you that the plans won’t work and they know it.

Impact and Effect

The obvious impact of a wide spread epidemic would be the disablement and deaths of millions or hundreds of millions of people.  Even if we assume a “best case” epidemic of say ten to twenty percent fatalities and fifty to sixty percent disabilities of two to six weeks duration the civilization still collapses and millions more die as a result of violence, starvation, cold, heat, and of other diseases.   Because of our highly dependent and technologically sensitive world, the lack of people to sustain critical systems would quickly demolish order and safety.  No one to respond to fires or police calls.  No-one to keep sanitation pumps, water pumps and electrical systems running.  No-one to deliver food, medications or fuel.  No-one to keep the virtual money in the banking and financial systems from evaporating.  They will all be sick, dead or at least home protecting their own families.

The resulting desperation and shortages will have the cities in flames and the streets like war zones within weeks.  The effects of failed water systems and sanitation (human waste and garbage) will initiate diseases like Cholera, Typhus, Malaria, and a host of other viral and bacterial infections.

* N95 Dust Mist masks are effective protection against most airborne pathogens when worn properly. They are available at most pharmacies and hardware stores.  Live Free USA has constantly recommended them as “every day carry” (pocket or purse) items and stocking a dozen or more at home.

Extinction is the rule.  Survival is the exception.

Carl Sagen 2007

Steven Hawking is arguably the smartest man in the world.  The British theoretical physicist is noted for his work in gravitational singularities, relativity and quantum mechanics.   Now when a guy like that expresses serious doubts that humanity can survive another 100-years we should all be very concerned.  Not that long ago, preparedness advocates and survivalists were considered paranoid extremists, but today some of the most intelligent people on earth are saying what we have been saying for decades.  Hawking is not a politician trying to gain power or a survival goods salesman.  He is a scientist and a mathematician who has done the math.  Our extinction or at least the dramatic decline in civilization is a mathematical certainty.  Political leaders are frantically trying to postpone economic, social and environmental collapse while covering up the truth.  The “normalcy bias” is a strong psychological affect that supports denial of danger and bad news in spite of obvious trends and events.  Most people believe any good news about “recovery”, unlimited fuel supplies, peace, etc. and try to ignore dangers and threats until it’s too late.  However the constant barrage of disasters, economic problems, war and chaos are forcing more and more thoughtful and responsible citizens into preparedness, survival education and sustainable living programs.

One of the dangers that Steven Hawking is primarily concerned about is the population explosion that will inevitably use up all of the natural resources resulting in wars, famine and massive depopulation.  He and other noted scientists have predicted that the population at the end of this century will be reduced to what it was at the end of the 19^th century.  The destruction, misery and death involved in that transition is horrible to contemplate. That’s not a fear mongering emotional prediction.  It is a mathematical calculated result.

Another one of his concerns is the rise Artificial Intelligence simply dehumanizing and replacing civilization as we know it.  Again, this is pretty smart guy not a conspiracy nut!   Let’s face it, we are already fighting a losing battle to control the internet and the digitalization of everything we do.   This pervasive dependency (read helplessness) has weakened newer generations and shifted power and wealth upwards.   Our privacy and therefore our freedom is virtually non-existent.  Constant networking and reaction to incoming messages (often computer generated) eliminates in-depth thinking and creativity.  A recent study concluded that, thanks to smart phones, the human attention span is down to seven seconds.  That’s one second less than a goldfish!    Computer power and intrusion grows exponentially while human intelligence has been shown to be declining for decades*   Do the math.

Recently Bill Gates joined Hawkins in predicting that a serious epidemic would ravage humanity in the not-to-distant future.  Gates rates the chances of a widespread epidemic in his lifetime as 50-percent and estimated the death toll as high as 33-million.  The political and economic impact would be staggering. We have had plenty of near-miss epidemics in the past few years.  Our luck is bound to run out.

As I write this, California is in the grips of the longest drought in history, while Texas recovesr from a drought with enough rain in one week to cover the entire state to a depth of eight inches.  Thousands are dying in India from record high temperatures and it’s only May.  In Alaska it’s in the 80’s and 90’s in May. Yes I said Alaska.  More frequent and severe tornado groups hit every year. Boston is recovering from almost 90 inches of snow in one month.   Various diseases, floods and droughts are ravaging food supplies, animals and crops throughout the world driving prices upward. California and India have nearly exhausted the water in their underground aquafers.   Fuel prices have come down due to increased pumping and last ditch (high cost) drilling.  This is like spending your last savings.  It feels good, but only hastens resource bankruptcy.  States and nations are going bankrupt almost weekly with riots and demonstrations that achieve nothing.  Let’s not even start on the Middle East.

Unfortunately there is not much chance of averting some combination of runaway technology, overpopulation, environmental extremes, economic deterioration and world epidemics taking a huge toll on human life and civilization as we know it.  These are not things that could happen or might happen.  They are things that are happening already.

Hawking’s concern is about the survival of “humanity” not “humans”.   It’s hard to conceive a disaster or sequence of disasters that would totally wipe out every last human being on earth, but we can easily see how the above circumstances could reduce “humanity” to something less than human.  Artificial intelligence is a clear and present danger to our independent thinking and our ability to act as free human beings.  The fear and desperation brought on by disasters and disintegrating social structures often results in the rise of the worst human traits.  Predators, dictators and demagogues thrive on such conditions.  In the past humanity has been able to flee form oppression, disease, famine and disaster, but there is nowhere left on earth to run.

If “humanity” is to survive all that lies ahead, it is up to us.   The growing preparedness, survivalist, self-reliance, sustainable living movement must grow faster and be stronger than the already growing trends towards submissiveness, despair, chaos and confusion.  It must be our mission to preserve and strengthen individual and family self-reliance and guide good people through the challenges to their physical and moral survival.

Sometime in the twenty-second Century your surviving children and grandchildren will live in a world that your efforts and values created.  They may survive as desperate, violent, and wretched people living off of the remnants of a past civilization or they may be free, happy and productive citizens still masters of an improved and recovered society.  Live Free USA has always maintained that there is much more to survival than just staying alive.  Let’s hope we are smart enough to prove Steven Hawkins wrong.

* Scientists postulate that with the comforts and security of the 20^th Century the survival struggles that required higher intelligence no longer existed and so we started to get dumber.   Now computers do the thinking.  Guess where that leads.

* Hawking has argued that computer viruses should be considered a new form of life, and has stated that "maybe it says something about human nature, that the only form of life we have created so far is purely destructive.

Source: Executive Order 13603 and What it Means for Preppers...…

I’ve been going over “Executive Order 13603” today and thought that you might be interested in taking a look at the following provisions that I pulled directly from the document and pasted below.

What this all boils down to is that the President, can declare a national emergency and then take all resources, even privately owned resources, resources, like your preps and any other private property that they want…

Over the years I’ve read many articles and books which suggest that the biggest threat to your survival post collapse are refugees fleeing the cities or your neighbors coming to take your preps, and while they are a legitimate concern, as you can see by reading the excepts taken directly from executive order 13603, they probably won’t be the biggest threat to your survival.

After the president declares a disaster and enacts executive order 13603, the federal government will first concentrate on taking large commercial farms, fuel produces, fertilizer plants etc, in maybe your local state and county governments who are the first ones coming after the local resources of individuals and families within their state, county and city jurisdictions.

This is why it’s a good idea to have your preps well hidden and backup preps stored away from your home and retreat…