While the concept of “everyday carry” goes back to my “Coat Pocket Survival” article from the 1980’s, the available options and the potential emergencies have changed significantly. What passes for “normal” life has become more dangerous, and the potential for more violent situations and even nuclear war are inescapable.  

It is usually impractical to carry a full survival kit or pack as we go to our jobs, shopping, or social activities, but the truly prepared citizen must have some essential survival response items on hand at all times. Most disasters strike without warning and may happen when we are far from our home, our survival gear, and our supplies. The concept of everyday carry is to have a few items on-hand that will give you a chance and an advantage. 

The survival principle of “It’s not what you have, but what you have with you that counts” applies here. Because of the added complexity of today’s survival threats, and the impending war, I have created three levels of everyday carry. 

Everyday Carry Level One 

  This level is adequate for what we now call “normal” times. The items included are intended to address a variety of natural emergencies such as storms, earthquakes, fires, accidents, and assaults. These items can generally be kept in pockets or a purse without attracting attention or being uncomfortably bulky.                                                                                                   

• Pocketknife: Depending on the clothing you wear, this can be a small two-inch blade or a larger three-inch blade. Good “survival folders” come with a seatbelt cutter and a glass breaker for escape and rescue work. Some even include a flashlight and a magnesium fire starter. A knife imparts a major survival advantage in many situations.  
• Cell Phone: These still have utility if services are functional. If you live in an urban area, you may want to carry a second, fully charged “throw away phone.”  Most carjackers and robbers will want your phone, so give them the throw away and use the other to call 911 after they depart. Even if they get the good, connected phone you can still call 911 on any charged cellphone.  
• Mini Flashlight: Do not depend on your cellphone for light. Miniature flashlights could be critical in a blackout or smoke-filled building. They can even be attached to your key ring.  
• Whistle: A loud whistle can attract the attention of rescuers far better than your voice. 
• N95 folding Respirator:  Safe air is the first need of survival. When buildings are falling, things are burning, biohazards are in the air, or radioactive fallout begins, these basic respirators will offer some protection. While they do not protect against poison gases or chemicals, they are better than nothing when immediately at hand. Charcoal-impregnated N95 masks provide limited protection against chemical contaminants. 
• Fire Starter: While small magnesium fire starter sticks can spark a fire with dry tinder, a flame beats a spark in most cases. A simple butane lighter can get a fire started or provide a bit of light as needed. The torch-like lighters are very effective and safe. 
• Bandana: Cloth bandanas can be used as bandage, tourniquet, improvised respirators, and other survival devices.  
• Defense Device: Your choice here depends on your environment and lifestyle. Any kind of loaded firearm around children is an invitation to disaster. Safety first, but if this is not an issue a sub-compact firearm is certainly an everyday carry need in many locations. Taser and pepper spray devices are better than nothing but are seldom effective when you’re surprised by one or more assailants.  

Everyday Carry Level Two 

  This level brings a significantly higher level of daily preparedness to confront violent and prolonged threats that might develop during wartime. These items can help you cope with civil disorder; organized assaults; chemical, biological, and nuclear hazards; and the necessity to flee through high threat environments.  

Items can be distributed in pockets, pouches, or a vest without attracting much attention or being too bulky for everyday activities. In addition to the N95 mask, whistle, cell phone and bandana, the following items are added. 

• Multi-tool: You can replace the knife or have this in addition to your knife. These tools enable the owner to improvise, repair, and escape. They come in a wide variety of sizes and tool combinations. The bigger the better.  
• Rain Poncho: A small plastic rain poncho can provide protection against wind, rain, and airborne contaminants. Just staying dry can prevent hypothermia. Keeping chemicals and fallout off the skin can be critical. Not as good as a full body covering, but a big advantage over nothing.  
• Tourniquet Device: At this threat level, there is a serious chance of major injury. All police and military personnel now carry tourniquets. These come with a handy belt or ancle pouch.  

• Hand sanitizer: A small bottle of alcohol-based hand sanitizer can be used to help start a fire, clean off contaminants, and sanitize wounds. 
• Water purifier: Hydration is critical, but you may need to use questionable sources. Having a few water purification tablets can provide some protection. They also make water safer for flushing and cleaning wounds.  
• Larger flashlight: A larger, five- to ten-LED flashlight is advisable. Some come with adjustable beams and colors. 
• Firearm: At this level, always carrying a firearm is just common sense. There are plenty of compact handguns with six- to ten-round magazine capacities. Carrying at least one extra magazine is advisable.  

Everyday Carry Level Three 

  At this level, the items are intended to help survive when actual warzone conditions develop. Such conditions could include shootings, explosions, fires, interruption of water and food, rampant civil disorder, ad-hoc medical services, and even radioactive fallout. These items are intended to provide immediate and basic needs to facilitate survival, escape, or evacuation in a worst-case scenario. 

Short of carrying a full survival pack and dressing like a combatant, a butt pack or a shoulder pack will probably not attract undue attention under these conditions. In addition to the aforementioned whistle, N95 mask, bandana, and cell phone, the following additions and upgrades create the level three everyday carry list.  

• Heavy duty poncho: A larger vinyl poncho that is more durable and effective will be necessary if you need prolonged protection from the elements and contaminants.  
• Rescue Blanket: These aluminized blankets will provide additional protection for you or another person and can offer shelter and warmth for cold weather. They are a must for shock or hypothermia victims.  
• Eye protection: Flying debris, dust, and contaminants can endanger your eyesight and introduce infections. Normal glasses are insufficiently protective. A pair of folding goggles will be helpful.  
• Energy Bars: A high-stress survival scenario may require prolonged exertion; exhaustion can render you vulnerable. A few energy bars can provide nourishment and comfort.  
• Water Bottle: Carrying at least a pint or two of water is worth the burden under these conditions. There are bottles that include a filtration system, or you can carry purification tablets to refill your bottle as needed.  
• Multi-band Radio: Small, multi-band radios are available can be tuned to emergency channels, citizens Band, and even pre-established family or group communications networks. This may be your primary information and communication source when cellular systems, commercial radio, and TV networks go down.  
• Monocular or Binocular: A small monocular will give you a chance to see trouble before you encounter it. Are those friends, or potential assailants? Is that a safe route? What’s leaking from that rail car? Is he carrying a gun?  
• Tactical Flashlight: You will want a heavy-duty, military grade flashlight with at least 2000 lumens of brightness and an adjustable beam. There are plenty of options available.  
• Mini-First Aid Kit: In addition to the torniquet, you can add a variety of hemostatic blood stopper dressings, self-adhesive bandages, antibiotic ointments, and pain relivers.  
• Firearm(s): At this point, the sight of an armed civilian should not be unusual. A full-sized handgun with at least four extra magazines may be necessary to get you south of a serious situation. Learn how to change magazines under fire. If things get bad enough, carrying a pistol in a holster and/or carrying a rifle or sub-rifle may be considered normal and justified for every day.  

Conclusion 

  You can add or combine items as needed to create an everyday carry system that meets your needs and environment. The key to survival is having what you need, where you need it, when you need it. Everyday carry means every day and all the time, starting now. If you only carry some items, sometimes, Murphys law will get you.  

I have written several articles related to chemical biological and nuclear survival over the past twenty years and I covered these subjects in all five of my books. My qualifications include being an EMT, HAZMAT Technician, and certified Radiological Monitor way back with the Civil Defense Department in the 80’s. These articles were regarded as interesting but academic a few years ago, but recent chemical spill incidents, an ongoing pandemic, and serious potential for limited or unlimited nuclear war make NBC protection and decontamination skills both relevant and critical for every citizen.

Rules of Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Survival

1. Keep the contaminant (chemical, virus, bacteria, and fallout) out of your body. Have or improvise protection.
2. Keep the contaminant (chemical, virus, bacteria, and fallout) off your body.
3. Get out of the contaminated area as fast as possible. Have a plan.
4. Get the contaminant (chemical, virus, bacteria, and fallout) off your body and covering as fast as possible.
5. Isolate yourself from people and material that are contaminated as soon as possible and for as long as possible. Have supplies.
6. Treat the symptoms of chemical exposure, diseases and radiation as effectively as possible. For nuclear contamination have a supply of potassium iodide tablets. Have antibiotics purchased from pet stores, or survival supply outlets. Also have plenty of electrolyte hydration powder, as dehydration is often the main killer from radiation sickness, and infections.

Respiratory Protection

Ninety percent of the immediate harm from biological agents, chemical agents and radioactive fallout is from inhalation and ingestion of the contaminant. Skin and hair exposure must be decontaminated as soon as possible, but what you have breathed and swallowed is irreversible harm. It is unlikely that you will have an M-17 or an Israeli gas mask handy when the NBC event happens. You may be at your job, at school, shopping or on the road. Even if you have full NBC masks and gear at home you may well breathe a lethal amount of contaminant before you get there. Remember: “It’s not what you have that saves you, it’s what you have with you.

Fortunately, the N95 dust/mist masks sold in most hardware stores for painting is all the protection you need from biological threats and nuclear fallout. These mask cost less than $2.00 each. They also can protect you from chemical contaminated dust and soot created by bombs, fires and storms. These masks are small and light enough to carry everywhere. You should have at least one in every jacket, purse, glove box, briefcase, and pack. Have more of them at home. It is critical that you keep them in a sealed plastic bag so that the inside of the masks is not pre-contaminated before you put it on. It is also critical that you fit it properly according to the instructions on the package.

Air and contaminants will not go through a filter if they can go around them. Be aware that all bets are off if you have a beard or heavy facial hair. You may need to consider packing a plastic razor with the mask. The mask will keep biologically contaminated air and mists out of your lungs and will keep radioactive dust partials out of your body where Alpha and Beta radiation do the most harm. The N95 is not rated for chemical protection but does provide very limited short-term reduction in exposure. There are also some N95 plus masks that have a charcoal impregnated layer for improved protection against chemicals. So, you’re most important and effective step to NBC protection is stocking-up on N95 masks and have in a least one with you and every family member wherever you go.

Instructions for Fitting N95 Dust/Mist Masks.

1. Mold the nosepiece to the shape at your fingertips, allowing the headbands to hang below your hand.

2. Press the respirator against your face with the nosepiece on the bridge of your nose.

3. Place the top band high on the back of your head. Move the bottom band over your head and position it below your ears.

4. Using both bands, mold the nosepiece to the shape of your nose.

5. Test the fit. Cup both hands over the respirator and exhale vigorously. If air flows around your nose, tighten the nosepiece. If air leaks around the edges, reposition the bands for better fit.

If you are concerned about chemical agents, consider purchasing a mask designed for pesticide spraying. Most chemical warfare agents are based on pesticides and these masks will work well enough for you to evacuate the affected area. You will also need a pair of chemical goggles to protect your eyes. Both of these are usually available at garden supply stores.

Home Made Mask for Biological Agents

Mix 1 tbsp. of bicarbonate of soda to 1 cup of water. Mix the solution well and soak a cloth or handkerchief in it. Wring out till damp and secure over nose and mouth.

Protective Clothing

In the case of biological agents, you generally will not be wearing protective clothing. However, clothing worn in public (stores, buses, etc.) where it may have been contaminated by coughing, sneezing, contact with furniture etc. should be removed wearing gloves before the mask is removed and should be laundered thoroughly.

Your best protection against biological hazards is the ability to stay completely isolated from the public until the epidemic has run its course. That means having enough food, water and other supplies to eliminate any need to leave home for from two to six weeks. During this time you will have to treat every approaching person including friends and family members as a threat to your life to be turned away or isolated. Decontamination will not save you if the “visitor” is already carrying the contagion. Remember that a person may be contagious long before showing symptoms. In fact biological warfare agents are designed to work just that way. Once the epidemic has started anyone and anything that enters your home must be decontaminated with a 10-percent bleach water solution. Even though you may still have running water it may be contaminated or even be the source of the epidemic. Boil all water for 5-minutes or ad 8-12 drops of bleach per gallon. Never run out of bleach. Have at least five extra gallons on hand at all times and rotate frequently. You will need it for water purification, decontamination and body waste disposal throughout any emergencies. All potentially contaminated food containers (cans, bottles, etc.) that were recently been exposed in public places (stores, etc.) should be wiped down with a 10% bleach solution or a strong soap before opening.

Having kept the hazardous material out of the body, we can move to how to keep them off the skin and hair. There are three situations where body protection may be necessary:

1. Situations where heavy biological contamination exists, such as hospitals, dead bodies, or areas where biological agents have been dispersed.
2. Situations where airborne chemical contaminants are present, such as downwind of a chemical spill. Or in building debris.
3. Any area in the downwind “footprint” of fallout from a nuclear detonation for at least two weeks.

Fortunately, there are fairly simple and easy solutions available. You do not need heavy NBC suits and masks. These products are designed for the military and industry to fight, and work for extended periods in high-risk environments. You just need immediate protection long enough to get out of the contaminated area or reach a fallout shelter.

You can improvise a protective suite from plastic bags rubber bands and a pair of surgical gloves. Latex gloves are a handy item that I keep with each mask. The suit below consists of two large bags used as a skirts and head/body cover and four small ones used to cover arms, legs and shoes. It is important to note that any form of non-porous covering is better than none. Even just the one big bag covers 50% of the body. A raincoat or poncho is far better than nothing.

A step better is the basic Tyvek ™ chemical protective suits with the hoods and feet. These are cheap (around $12.00) light and easy to carry. I keep one in all my survival packs. These two are often available in hardware stores and are used by painters. They are a bit bulky for the pockets, but fit well in the glove box, desk drawer or locker.

Decontamination

Now that we have kept the bad stuff off of our skin and out of our lungs, we need to be able to remove the contamination and contaminated coverings without transferring it back into and onto our bodies. This process is called decontamination. Of course we want to do this when we are outside of the danger zone or at the entrance to more effective shelter (underground for fallout, enclosed from biological or chemical) locations. Ideally this is a two-person job, with both wearing protective clothing. It should be done in a location that will not permit contaminated run-off, spray mists or dusts to contaminate other safe areas.

There are five steps to effective decontamination.

1. Gross decontamination involves simply brushing off or rinsing off any surface contaminants as well as dumping any contaminated gear that will not be needed.
2. Thorough decontamination is accomplished by the use of pressurized water (not high pressure) with a neutralizing or disinfecting solution. A ten-percent bleach solution is best for biological contaminants. Soap and water will clear most chemical and fallout materials. Plain water used copiously will be less effective but may be adequate. The best device for spraying is a commercial pump garden sprayer. Keep a clean one handy at home. They are also good for fighting small class “A” fires and general hygiene tasks.
3. Next you need to“peel of” the protective clothing minimizing any contact with the clean clothing and skin underneath. Step out of the foot coverings* onto an uncontaminated surface. Remove the face mask and then peel off the gloves.

4. If any clothing was potential contaminated before you put on the protection it must be removed and any skin, or hair must be rewashed before dressing and entering the safe zone or shelter.
5. Finish up by bagging all contaminated materials and containing all contaminated waters. Remember; the decontamination area is now a hot zone that cannot be entered without protection. Be sure your selected decontamination area does not block exit routs or entry routs for uncontaminated people. Be sure runoff from the decontamination area does not go into water sources or locations where others may track through it.

Conclusion

Your improvised emergency protection may not be as effective as professional and military equipment, but you are more likely to have it and use it when and where you need it. Used quickly and with care, these techniques will be effective enough to save you from the effects of exposure to radioactive fallout, biological contamination and most chemical exposures. It is recommended that you have at least one N95 mask and a pair of latex gloves in each jacket pocket and several in your survival pack. Have enough plastic bags and/or chemical suits to protect every family member handy.

NOTE: The plastic bag suit, or chemical protection suit and dust mask are all useful for cold weather survival situations and should be part of every survival pack.

While the annual meeting is still months away (March 25, 2022) Live Free USA is now accepting nominations for the Board of Directors.  Whereas most previous board members have been located in the Great Lakes region, we are a national organization and are very much committed to broadening our leadership. Since board meetings are now held online, and projects are shared on various internet platforms there is no reason that members from coast-to-coast cannot become officers. As of this date there are at least three directorships that are up for reelection and three currently unfilled positions that are available. Officers are elected for three-year terms and are expected to take on various duties and projects as specified in the bylaws. Directorship is an opportunity to be a part of America’s original survival and preparedness organization. Members can place themselves or others into nomination by e-mailing survivorjj@aol.com or writing to Live Free USA, PO Box, 3295 Munster IN 46321.  Please provide a brief description of why you want to be nominated.  

When Live Free USA was founded in 1968, the specter of nuclear war was the primary driver for the survivalist movement. We still had programs on basic preparedness, outdoor survival, and self-defense, but nuclear war and the chaos and violence that would follow was the scenario that motivated interest in survival education and preparation. When we thought that the Cold War had ended in the 1990s, the survivalist movement almost collapsed. All of the survival publications went out of business, and every survival organization except Live Free USA dissolved. We continued to fight the growing complacency and world events such as global-terrorism, rampant crime, violent weather, and economic instability revitalized support for individual safety and self-reliance. Still, support for survivalism never returned to Cold War levels. The advent of a worldwide pandemic that generated massive civil unrest and economic instability certainly highlighted the instability, and vulnerability of our highly dependent and centralized society. Amid all of these threats to life and freedom, the potential for nuclear war has reemerged in even more dangerous forms.

While the theory of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) worked to avert a nuclear holocaust through the late Twentieth Century, and treaties and inspection temporarily provided some level of prevention in the past two decades, none of these preventive agents apply today.

Cold War era ballistic missiles took time to launch and followed a long arching trajectory to the target. Once a launch was detected, the target nation would have time to launch its own missiles. So the missiles would pass each other on the way to their targets. If one launches, they both are annihilated. No one wins. Mutually assured destruction. But now we have hypersonic cruise missiles that are hard to detect and travel at over 4,000 mph (miles per hour). These weapons will reach their targets in minutes, before the victims have time to launch a counter strike. Like an old fashioned Western gun fight, the winner is whoever draws and shoots first. While the United States civil defense programs just designated various basements as fallout shelters, the old Soviet Union had constructed hundreds of hardened underground installations complete with workshops, hospitals, and housing for thousands. These installations were virtual underground cities connected by miles of tunnels and railroads. Many of these facilities were located in the Ukraine and the Crimea. It should be very concerning that Russia has reactivated and updated many of these formerly abandoned sites, and has been building more, while our military was spending billions chasing cave-dwellers in Afghanistan.

During the Cold War, the world was relatively stable with just two super powers being very careful. In fact, the Soviets were so worried about unauthorized launches that their prelaunch protocols were more stringent than ours. Today we have unstable and rogue leaders and multiple nations with nuclear weapons and multiple scenarios for their use.

In the early days of the Cold War (1950-1980), large single warhead bombs, and then ballistic missiles, were the primary threat. Civil defense maps indicated areas of destruction radiating from the center of a target city or base. More recently, missiles are fitted with multiple smaller warheads and decoys, so it is more likely that a number of nukes would bracket a city and do far more damage much farther away from the city center. Instead of one 25 megaton blast in downtown Chicago, we could see five to ten, one to five megaton warheads detonating from northern Waukegan to northwest Indiana extending the un-survivable range out to 50 or more miles, and the damage out to 100 miles. With a combination of incoming multiple-warhead (MIRV or multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle) ballistic missiles, and hypersonic cruise missiles, the residents would have zero chance of escape or survival. Unless they had already put themselves some distance from the area, or had evacuated days in advance.

Typical missile payload with nine nuclear warheads. A typical “boomer” submarine may carry as many as 24 of these missiles with this many warheads; that is 24 x 9 = 216.

How Could a Nuclear War Start?

During the Cold War, the scenario was that the USSR or the US might launch due to miscalculation or mistake of some kind. This almost happened in October 1962, an event known as the Cuban Missile Crisis. But, the specter of MAD and careful communications between Moscow and Washington averted a true disaster. Today, we have multiple scenarios that could lead to an exchange of nuclear warheads. The following events could occur in a domino-like sequence or individually.

1. A protracted regional war that spreads into a larger conventional war, resulting in threatened use of nuclear weapons.
2. The use of a few tactical nuclear weapons by one or both combatants in an attempt to achieve a tactical victory or break a stalemate.
3. A full exchange of tactical nuclear weapons limited to the battle field and support regions.
4. A limited nuclear attack aimed at military, government installations, and infrastructure within the combatant nations only.
5. A full-scale nuclear exchange between nations intended to kill civilians and totally destroy all industry and infrastructure.

At this writing, we are already at stage one of the above possibilities.

Back in the Cold War days, there were three attitudes about survival preparations for a nuclear war.

• The first was what we called the “Titanic Syndrome”: I can’t survive so why prepare? Our argument for this was: “Yea, but what if you do survive the initial blasts and aren’t prepared enough to survive the aftermath?”
• The second attitude was “It will be so horrible that I don’t want to survive it.” And our response: “Sure, you will be the most desperate and dangerous person out there killing folks for food, because you didn’t prepare.”

Both of the above attitudes were just cop-outs and denial by irresponsible citizens.

• Of course our attitude was that preparedness provides hope and is the responsibility of every good citizen regardless of the threat scenario.

Surviving a Nuclear War

While the threat of a nuclear war (limited or total) has reemerged and is more possible than ever, all of the civil defense preparations and public education that existed during the Cold War is long-gone and forgotten. Live Free USA will be updating and republishing our nuclear war survival articles in the coming months. There are plenty of ways that you can survive or at least increase your chances to survive nuclear war scenarios.

• The war may be limited to combat zones or only some domestic targets, in which case collateral damage and radioactive fallout will be survivable by those who know what to do and are properly prepared.
• If you live in a small town or rural area there will be little blast damage or primary radiation, but being able to mitigate fallout exposure, sustain isolation, and defend against desperate marauders will be essential.
• You may be away from the target area due to luck or good anticipatory planning. Having complete survival packs, weapons and if possible a safe retreat area will give you a chance to survive.
• You may have followed my first rule of survival (“Anticipate”) and have decided to take an out-of-town vacation or visit rural friends during an international crisis. Of course, you will have your survival packs and extra gear with you and maybe more stored at your friends’ place, as well.
• If you live outside the zone of total destruction, you may be injured and/or exposed to initial radiation and then fallout. You would find yourself among hordes of desperate and unprepared refugees. Your self-rescue capabilities, first-aid skills, survival packs, respirators, weapons and ammunition will greatly increase the survival chances for you and your family.

Conclusion

The increasing potential for a nuclear war should concern and motivate every responsible citizen. Modern technology has increased the potential lethality of such an event, while presenting significant challenges to survival. The effects of a general nuclear war are horrific, but many would survive the initial blasts and fires. Many of those who survive the first days of such a cataclysm would succumb to radiation sickness, starvation, disease, and violence unless they have acquired knowledge and made preparations to survive. The eleventh rule of survival is “Never Give Up!”

• Nuclear War Survival Skills by Cresson H. Kearny and forwarded by Edward Teller* of the Manhattan Project. A nuclear war survival manual commissioned by the US Government.
• Better Read than Dead by T.F. Nieman. This occasionally republished book was popular in the 1980s and includes a lot of fallout protection information. The title was a reference to the survivalist slogan “Better Dead than Red” back then.
• My old Radiological Monitoring manual from a course a Live Free USA member took for a county civil defense agency.
• A small fallout shelter sign from the 60s. Shelters were stocked with food, water, medicine, and radiation monitoring instruments. No such shelters exist today.

*I met Edward Teller when we were both speaking at the American Society for Civil Defense convention in Los Vegas in the 1980’s

Back in 2011, I made a PowerPoint presentation entitled “Citizens Disaster Awareness” where I warned of the coming of multiple, interconnected disasters, including epidemics, civil unrest, extreme weather, and economic deterioration. I also wrote a two-part series titled “Storm Warning” warning of exactly the conditions we now face. Such presentations were not well received and few took them seriously. Human nature is to hear what we want to believe and reject what we don’t want to believe. A true survivor is one who is more apt to accept unpleasant possibilities and question optimistic predictions. Politicians survive by telling the people what they want to believe even when they know that

1. Very bad things are happening, and
2. They are not going to be able to prevent them or help you much when they happen.

When Live Free USA was organized, back in the 1960’s we had only two major survival threats to be concerned with, they were a nuclear war with the USSR, and communist inspired civil unrest at home. The economy was healthy, we were healthy, there was no terrorism, crime was limited, and we had a normal amount of bad weather. Back then, America was the unrivaled power in the world, and the future looked bright. By the dawn of the Twenty-first Century we faced a plethora of threats and ongoing disasters that have multiplied in the past two decades. The world as we know it has already ended. There are far too many interconnect threats to life and freedom to prevent catastrophic development for us and our children. At the end of my 2011 presentation a slide said that “we are firmly attached to an inclined plane wrapped helically around a central core”. Translation: “we're screwed”!

Here are my top ten threats to life and freedom for America in the next ten years and beyond.

#1: China

The objective of the Chinese Communist Party is world domination, using its economic and technological power. Americans—and all other people—would be subject to tyranny beyond the dreams of Hitler or Stalin. The day before the US exited from Afghanistan, Chinese diplomats were posing for photos with Taliban leaders. China is now equal, or slightly superior, to the USA, economically and militarily. They are not a “trading partner”, they are an enemy far more dangerous than the old USSR ever was. They use social media to create confusion, hate and division in America. They use the wealth that we have given them to bribe foreign politicians, infiltrate schools, and buy into corporations. They profited from the pandemic while our economy was ravaged. The Chinese Communists don’t need to conquer the world, they are just buying it. They are the primary source of drugs that drive crime in our cities. Most the threats listed below are either caused or deliberately exacerbated by China’s war on America. It may already be too late.

• Probability: Ongoing and immediate
• Severity: Total loss of freedom, privacy, and economic independence

#2: Pandemics

Before 2019 scientists predicted that a world-wide pandemic was inevitable. It was at the top of our previous “threat matrix” lists. Nothing has changed! The world population was not thinned out enough by Covid19 to reduce the chances of another, maybe even more deadly pandemic next year or in a few years. It is just as “inevitable” as it was in 2019. The economy and civilization cannot afford a repeat, but it’s still inevitable. The population density, travel frequency, and constant emergence of new pathogens will make this a new normal. This is how nature regulates over-population. Some scientists predict that the population at the end of this century will be the same as it was it the start of the twentieth century.

• Probability: 50% in the next ten years, inevitable within 20 years
• Severity: 20 to 40% reduction in world population. Massive political and economic chaos.

#3: Civil Unrest

The recent pandemic generated a surge in civil unrest, but this was only a symptom of a general and world-wide state of political discontent. Climate change, food shortages, economic decline, and crime, all exacerbated by communist agitation and divisive social media will continue to escalate violence and destruction. Major disasters and economic events may explode into full-scale revolutions. Police and even military forces may be unable to protect otherwise peaceful communities. If civilians are unable to defend themselves and their homes, draconian governmental interventions may end freedom as we know it.

• Probability: ongoing and increasing world-wide
• Severity: Urban and suburban fatalities and property damage, and significant economic and political impact.

#4: Economic Decline

Simply put: Earth has enough resources to support about 5 billion people, and we have 7.5 billion and growing. We have too many people fighting over too few resources. The economy is already a myth. Redistribution cannot do much. New technology is buying time, but there is not enough sunshine, wind, or wood to power civilization of 7 billion people at this level. There is not enough arable land or water to feed that many adequately. This is the ultimate, unavoidable economy reality. Wealth is resources developed into product (food, homes, etc.) and we don’t have enough to go around. Two years after Pearl Harbor eight battle ships was two-day ship production for American industry. In four years America destroyed Japan and Germany, while saving the USSR. Twenty years after 9-ll ground zero is still not reconstructed, and the Taliban is victorious after a twenty-year war. This should tell us all about the end of American economic supremacy.

• Probability: Ongoing and intensifying towards collapse.Severity: declining living standards, shortages, mass migrations, famine, and riots.

#5: Cyber Attacks and EMP

The recently cyber-attacks on hospitals, oil pipelines, and power grids was just the tip of the spear. These were conducted by third party, ransomware groups, but they are nothing compared to the potential, cyber-war weapons that are already inside our critical systems. Many cyber weapon programs can hide or lay dormant, or even travel through the web seeking a specific target. They may be used as part of a state coordinated attack, or the actions of terrorists. The economy can be destroyed with a click of a mouse. Your water supply, power supply, fuel supply, or food supply can be interrupted for extended periods. Planes can be brought down, and yes, civilization can be brought to chaos from a keyboard. How a large-scale electromagnetic pulse (EMP) would affect modern electronic systems is subject to considerable debate. An EMP can be generated from the sun, or by detonation of an EMP/ nuclear weapon at high altitude. In our highly wired world an EMP could be put us back to nineteenth century technology.

• Probability: Cyber-attacks will increase and impact every sector of life. The chances of a large scale EMP even range from 20 to 50%

#6: War

Back in the 1960’s when Live Free USA was founded, nuclear war was the primary driver for survival preparations. Now, as we are beset by multiple threats, it is easy to forget that the United States, Russia, and China still have thousands of nuclear armed missiles ready to launch. In addition we now have a growing number of rogue states with limited, but still deadly nuclear weapons. There are plenty of scenarios that could initiate a limited or unlimited nuclear exchange. The world is far less stable than it was during the cold war. Leon Panetta, former US Secretary of Defense, recently stated that “America is in more danger today than at any time since World War Two”.

• Probability: 50% for large-scale world-wide non-nuclear, 20% for limited nuclear exchange, and 10% for unlimited nuclear war within the next ten years.
• Severity: Ranging from significant destruction and loss of life to the end of civilization as we know it.

#7: Revolution

In the Jan/Feb issue of American Survivor I wrote the article “Is America Headed for Another Revolution?” I based this on my studies of the underlying conditions that sparked revolution in the past. There were a lot of small cracks in the socioeconomic system that were being magnified by social media. These divisions and discontent were being
exploited by China and Russia through disinformation and bots that spread hate and confusion. The pandemic was the match that initiated the mild/semi-insurrections of 2020. Certainly politicians, and foreign agents poured gasoline on every dispute. Economic decline, shortages, natural disasters, and grid failures will continue to fuel unrest and violence throughout the world. With the exception of the one in 1776, few revolutions have ended with expanded freedom. Most of the world’s population today is oppressed and desperate.

• Probability: More than 50% in the next ten years for all countries including the United States due to economic instability.
• Severity: Revolutions are unlikely to improve conditions and may result in the rise of oligarchies, and oppression.

#8: Terrorist Attacks

Terrorist are certain to be emboldened by victory in Afghanistan. The adjoining, unstable Pakistan with its extremist population and nuclear weapons provided the opportunity for nuclear terror in the future. The pandemic must inspire the imagination of would-be bioterrorists. The use of drones and even remotely controlled planes and trucks provide new methods of delivery. Imagine what a major terror attack could have done in the midst of the pandemic and civil unrest. Technology and our dependence on it is a major force multiplier for even small groups of misguided people.

• Probability: Inevitable.
• Severity: Ranging from bombings and shootings, to biological and even nuclear attacks.

#9: Extreme Weather

In the 1970’s the world averaged about 711 weather related storms, hurricanes, floods, droughts, tornadoes per year. From 2000 to 2009 the average was 3,536. Regardless of the cause, the climate is changing for the worst. Yes, the climate has changed many times over the centuries, but each change has caused massive social and political upheaval, wars, and migrations. Whole civilizations have been lost. Our existing, over populated, technologically dependent civilization is far more vulnerable than the more self-reliant societies of the past. Not only do we need to survive the individual weather events, we also need to cope with the unrest, chaos, pandemics, and economic decline that results.

• Probability: Ongoing and unpreventable
• Severity: Devastating. Famine, droughts, mass migrations, revolutions, wars, and whole areas becoming uninhabitable.

#10: Rampant Crime

The criminalized society and drug cartel financed gangs now control many major cities. They have such financial, political, and social influence that mayors, governors, and even presidents are afraid to mention “gangs” as the source of crime. Honest citizens are carjacked and beaten with impunity. Stray bullets kill children. Working tax paying citizens and business’s flee the cities leaving only criminals and welfare families. Thanks to Google Earth and Facebook, criminals are able to reach out into suburban and rural communities that once felt safe. Police funding will continue to dwindle while gang finances grow. Armed citizens are the last line of defense against anarchy.

• Probability: Ongoing, increasing and self-evident.
• Severity: Urban areas abandoned to criminal gangs. Suburban and rural areas fortified. Criminal cartels become major political forces as the economy declines.

Conclusion

Back in 2011, most of the above threats (except for terrorism) were not yet recognized or were just on the horizon. The tendency towards denial, and the “normalcy bias” forced them from the public mind, and survivalists were outliers. The fact is that nothing has gotten better or safer in the world in the past decade, and there is no reason to expect them to do so in this century. We hear people talk about a new normal, implying that things will settle down into some less chaotic stable state. This is wishful thinking. Most of the above threats are already happening, and the others are mathematical certainties due to the limits of Earth’s resources, the population density, and consumption rates. The new normal as defined below will tolerate only survivalists.

Normal: a state of continuous, multiple and increasingly devastating natural and manmade disasters and the end of the world as we knew it.

Live Free periodically analyzes political, technological, environmental, and economic data to establish the most probable threats to life and freedom. There are a few new ones since the last update in 2011.  You have been warned.

As a Certified Hazard Control Manager and experienced student of emergency preparedness methodology, I have written dozens of articles about how to anticipate and prepare for a variety of disaster situations ranging from being lost in the wilderness to being affected by a large scale natural or man-made disaster.  I usually take a broader view of disasters than most writers.  A disaster is defined by how it affects you and your family.  If your house burns down from a misplaced candle or a massive wildfire, it’s still a disaster for you.  If you die from a personal ailment or from a pandemic pathogen, you are still dead.  Thus, I include home safety, and health issues in most of my threat matrix articles, and I will continue to advocate for good home safety and personal health maintenance as the foundation of survival preparedness.  In this article I will focus on the more traditional definition of “disaster”, a wide spread event that has absolute and unfavorable effects on the general population and infrastructure.  In comparison to personal disasters where you have more prevention, rescue and recovery potential, these disasters are usually beyond your control to prevent, and you cannot be dependent on external help.  My “top ten” probable disasters for this century, based on probability and potential harm are listed below.  Note that some are large-scale, cataclysmic events, while others are trends and developments happening now. It is also important to keep in mind that all of these situations negatively affect the probability and the severity of the others.

As a Certified Hazard Control Manager and experienced student of emergency preparedness methodology, I have written dozens of articles about how to anticipate and prepare for a variety of disaster situations ranging from being lost in the wilderness to being affected by a large scale natural or man-made disaster.  I usually take a broader view of disasters than most writers.  A disaster is defined by how it affects you and your family.  If your house burns down from a misplaced candle or a massive wildfire, it’s still a disaster for you.  If you die from a personal ailment or from a pandemic pathogen, you are still dead.  Thus, I include home safety, and health issues in most of my threat matrix articles, and I will continue to advocate for good home safety and personal health maintenance as the foundation of survival preparedness.  In this article I will focus on the more traditional definition of “disaster”, a wide spread event that has absolute and unfavorable effects on the general population and infrastructure.  In comparison to personal disasters where you have more prevention, rescue and recovery potential, these disasters are usually beyond your control to prevent, and you cannot be dependent on external help.  My “top ten” probable disasters for this century, based on probability and potential harm are listed below.  Note that some are large-scale, cataclysmic events, while others are trends and developments happening now. It is also important to keep in mind that all of these situations negatively affect the probability and the severity of the others.

Pandemic #2, #3...

There is no mathematical or logical reason that precludes the probability of another type of pandemic in the next few years. The chances of a pandemic in 2021 are exactly the same as they were in 2019.  The same issues of population density, migration and travel that existed before 2020 will exist as we go into the future decades. Unless or until war or pandemic actually reduces the population by a very significant percentage, the threat will remain and grow. No doubt, terrorists and extremists will have noted the effectiveness of this pandemic on America and the West and may work to deliberately develop and distribute even more virulent and deadly pathogens.  While we will be more vigilant and better prepared for future pandemics in the near future, apathy and the demands of other priorities will inevitably degrade preparedness over the coming years.  Other pathogens may have entirely different pathologies and require different methods of control and treatment, rendering stocks of equipment from the coronavirus useless.   The wise survivor will restock and double stock as if the next pandemic is just around the corner.

Mass Civil Disorder

A certain level of civil disorder were experienced as the pandemic of 2020 progressed.  It was difficult to manage and slow the spread of the disease while hold together the economy. Fear and frustration was often exploited by political agitators, criminals and even foreign influences to create division and encourage destructive acts. The internet and social-media facilitated hate and conspiracy theories when reason and analysis were most needed.  While the police and fire departments were still able to function, many of their members were debilitated and even killed by the virus.  The stress of putting their own families at risk to protect the general public did cause some disruptions and reduction in their capability, but it could be much worse in the future.  The anti-police rhetoric and misguided political actions immediately resulted in dramatic increases in violent crime in New York, Chicago and other cities, and the massive economic cost of the pandemic is bound to negatively affect the budgets for police and fire protection in every town and city.  Most locations will be hard-pressed to maintain public safety services and equipment after the pandemic, much less improve them to meet future challenges.  Trained employees at municipal water, power and sanitary facilities were also affected and in some cases threatened to walk-off the jobs if not given extra pay and protection.  The food supply chain sputtered and showed signs of failure as transportation, packing and retail employees became ill due to increased exposure.  The failure of one or more survival critical services to high-density urban and suburban regions for more than a few days would lead to panic, looting and general lawlessness.  Civil disorder in one or two major cities could be controlled by the reallocation of resources and the National Guard, but the spread of civil disorder throughout the country would leave citizen lives and property totally unprotected.  The damage could leave most regions devastated to the level of the third world.  Such a scenario is more likely now than it was just a year ago, so the survivor must not only be able to survive without help, they must also be able to protect their own lives, freedom, and property against malevolent and violent elements.

Economic Collapse

The health of an economy is determined by its productivity.  When the people are able to produce what is needed and purchase what they need we have a stable economy.  Even before the pandemic the world economy was a house of cards, only sustained by automation and economic manipulation. The stability of national economies can be measured by the national debt vs the nations productivity (GDP). Here are some examples China has a 1.6 trillion dollar debt with a 297 percent debt vs GDP gap. The US has a whopping 25 trillion dollar debt* with a 106.2 percent GDP gap. Japan has a 12.2 trillion dollar debt against a 237 percent gap. Simply put the world owes more than it can pay and does not have the natural resources to support seven-billion people in anything like health and comfort.  Automation has made simple labor less and less valuable and shifted wealth and power to a smaller and smaller number of nations and individuals. While the pandemic practically stopped the production of real produced wealth, trillions dollars in paper wealth were printed and distributed. Less than nine-percent of the worlds wealth exists in any solid (gold, paper) form the remaining ninety-one percent is just ones and zero in computers that has value only as long as people believe it has value.  Ultimately the gap (canyon) between our economic illusion and economic reality must lead to a very traumatic adjustment.  Sustained depression, massive losses, draconian taxation, high inflation rates, wealth confiscation, and totalitarian government may arise.  Gold, diamonds and currency will be worthless, while hard goods and necessities will be the only true currency.  Unfortunately: those who have made themselves self-reliant and in possession of needed supplies will be targets of hatred by the public and persecution by the state.  Ultimately: only strong networks and alliances among self-reliance practitioners and responsible citizens will suffice to preserve life, freedom and property against   annihilation.

*The US debt to China is 4.3 Trillion dollars alone

Climate Change

Regardless of the cause, climate change is a reality that must be faced and survived throughout the coming decades. All ten of the worst weather related catastrophes in US history have occurred since 1992 with a steadily increasing frequency and severity. In addition to creating droughts, floods, hurricanes, wildfires, and violent storms, it will exacerbate international conflicts, famines, mass migrations and economic problems throughout the world. The already weakened economies’ of most nations will render it impossible to cope with these disasters.  As a result the world’s capacity to support the current and future populations will continue to decline. We can anticipate living in a more meteorologically violent and unpredictable world while we cope with other threats. The survivor must shift life styles and priorities to meet this evolving situation over decades, while also being better prepared to survive more frequent storms, floods, and other local and regional disasters.  The ability to evacuate is particularly important for these kinds of threats.

Nuclear War

While there was a briefed relaxation of the potential for a nuclear exchange after the fall of the Soviet Union, that potential has returned, and is even greater today than it was in the 1980’s. Today’s nuclear delivery systems include hypersonic cruise missiles, stealth drones, hypersonic reentry warheads, and multiple warhead ballistic missiles. The new Chinese Dong-feng 41 missile has a range of 9,400 miles and speed of 25 times the speed of sound.  The new weapons are unstoppable and can reach any point in the US within thirty-minutes of launch. Current estimates are that China has 280 warheads, Russia has 6,850, and the US has 6,450, and it only takes one to start Armageddon.  In addition, we have India, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea, France and Great Brittan in possession of nuclear weapons that could be accidentally or deliberately detonated or stolen by terrorists. Famines, pandemics, disputes over dwindling resources, and general political instability could easily result in an escalating nuclear exchange. While blast sheltering may be impractical, the ability to evacuate and to detect and survive fallout are still important survival skills.  Any significant nuclear exchange would trigger all of the other listed disasters.

Famine

California, one of the world richest food producing areas, has lost over 30 percent of its cropland due to the ongoing drought.  The major aquafers that supply the water for crops in Africa, India and the American Midwest are drying up. Food shortages brought riots to Africa in 2010-2011 and food shortages had a part in the disastrous “Arab Spring” movement that eventually generated ISIS.   At this point the earth hosts over 7.3 billion people and this number will reach 9.7 billion by 2050 with the global demand for food rising by 50 percent above current levels. America loses one-percent or more of farmland to development annually. By the end of the twenty-first century (if we get there) the population will top 15 billion. To imagine that food production will ever be able to keep up with this demand is preposterous.  We cannot even feed the current population in many countries. China’s experiment with food production in Africa has been a total failure. Back in the 1990’s when the Soviet Union collapsed and stopped subsidizing North Korean agriculture over one-million Koreans died within a few years and they continue to die now. The whole world agricultural capacity is fragile and dependent on cheap water, cheap fertilizers (mostly based on petroleum) and cheap fuel to run massive machinery.  All of these elements are at or near the breaking point.  The pandemic clearly demonstrated the vulnerability of the food distribution system throughout the world. There can be no doubt that the issue of food supplies will become the major political, economic, military, and survival issue in the coming decades.  Despotic states and criminal black-market cartels may use food as a weapon to subjugate populations and facilitate oppression.  The ability to feed one’s self and one’s family is the foundation of survival and freedom.

Artificial Intelligence Domination

This threat was not seriously on my radar until recently, but must be considered as a threat to human life and freedom as we know it.  While computers were first thought to be the means to save us time and improve our lives and social opportunities, the technology has been used to waste our time and prevent intelligent, and productive social interaction. Technology is (intentionally or unintentionally) destroying human society and replacing it with a virtual society controlled by programs and logarithms. China leads the world in thought control and total surveillance of society through facial recognition, intelligent drones, and cameras everywhere, but they are exporting this technology to western nations on a massive scale.  I like to call people who have a Pavlovian need to respond to their phone or a text and go about with their smart phone on 24/7 “oblivions” who live in a virtual would rather than the real one around them.  It is interesting, and perhaps frightening to note that according to scientific studies human intelligence has been in decline for several decades, while computer power has recently surpassed that of the human brain. Moore’s law states that computer power doubles every 18 to 24 months. Artificial intelligence now engages in so-called “deep learnings” and acts on its own initiatives without human direction.  Computers learn and improve exponentially while the human brain improves only linearly. The human brain calculates a bit slower than the speed of light, while quantum computers calculate at thousands of times the speed of light*. Do the math. See the future.

* Due to something called “quantum-entanglement” it is actually possible to calculate and communicate faster than the speed of light.

Cyber Attack, EMP, Grid Failure

Cyber warfare has been in progress between the nations of the world for several decades.  Since America is the richest and most cyber dependent nation in the world, it is the major target for all types of cyber-attacks.  Targets for cyber-attacks include the electrical power grid, power generation systems, water distribution facilities, sewer systems, medical facilities, police and fire protection agencies, the military, and the financial infrastructure.  Artificially intelligent viruses can be programed to travel through the internet, lie in wait and then destroy a system or systems at a given time. Yes, they can be there right now hidden in programs. As with real viruses, computer viruses can be accidentally created and unleashed as well. Such viruses can bypass safety systems to destroy generators, oil refineries, nuclear facilities, water pumps and hospital equipment.  An attack on railroad, or air traffic control systems could result in significant death and destruction. Most of the world’s wealth exists as data in computers that could just disappear. Backup systems and air-gapped systems provide some protection, but recent events have demonstrated how these safeguards can be bypassed. Experts estimate that if the electrical grid in the United States was down for ten to twelve months ninety-percent of the population would die from the various affects.

Electromagnetic pulses (EMP) can destroy computers and other electronic devices, if unprotected. A large scale EMP could even disable vehicles, aircraft and municipal service systems. Nuclear weapons generate powerful EMP’s.  Solar events can generate EMP’s powerful enough to damage power grids, communication systems and unprotected electronic devices. The military has developed drones and portable devices that can target specific areas with powerful EMPs.  Terrorists can probably create EMT weapons as well.  The United States, Russia and China are in a race to create the first true quantum computer.  Such a computer would make all military and financial computers instantly obsolete and unlock every security system.  While an ordinary “super computer” could take many years to try every possible combination of words, letters and numbers in any potential password combination, a quantum computer could try hundreds of billions of combinations in a few minutes.

Cyberwarfare, along with economic warfare, disinformation through social media, drug importation, and political agitation are all part of the asymmetric warfare campaigns being waged against free societies throughout the world.  The individual must avoid dependency on personal digital systems and on the infrastructure that depends on them.  Backup data to isolated storage, keep hard copies, and keep electronic devices in faraday cages when possible.

Revolution and Civil War

The United States Government is the oldest and most stable government in the world today.  All of the governments of Europe, Asia, South America and the Middle-East have fallen and risen several times while the USA has stood and prospered.  While many Americans attribute this to our values and the genius of our Constitution there are other factors that have historically contributed to our stability.

• America maintained strong values of community, responsibility, self-reliance and patriotism regardless of race, religion or ethnicity. We were all Americans first.
• While there were natural inequities in wealth distribution they were not nearly as extreme as they are today. A large, contented and socially responsible middle class still existed.
• America and Americans were not subject to the constant divisive and toxic effects of the internet and social media.

None of these stabilizing factors are true today. Multi-ethnic societies are inherently unstable.  There is no longer an unlimited amount of real-estate, resources or jobs to absorbed even internal population growth.  We are involved with and influenced by divisive and confusing foreign involvements and intrigues. Today’s American is more self-centered, dependency-oriented and less involved in community than any previous generation.  The decades of centralized, big government have replaced responsibility with demanding, demonstrating and blame finding.  The gap between the poor and the ultra-wealthy is disgraceful and growing. The internet now facilitates division rather than unity, conflict rather than discussion and even violence in place of the political process.  Respect for the law and for American values has all but disappeared in many regions.  These are harbingers of future revolutionary developments. Armed demonstrations against the pandemic lockdowns and anti-gun legislation is a harbinger of future revolts. The growing sanctuary movement where counties*, and whole states are prepared to defy higher authorities is an indicator of massive discontent and defiance. There is a growing number of religious, racial and political elements that are quietly preparing for such a catastrophe.  There is a line in an old movie* about South American revolutions.  The General storms into the presidential palace proclaiming “El Presidente, the rebels are in the suburbs!” to which the dictator says “the rebels are always in the suburbs”. We are becoming more like one of these “Banana Republics”

* In Virginia 91 out of the 95 counties passed resolution defying the states gun laws.

Terrorist attacks

While the number of terrorist attacks has temporarily declined, the effects of potential terrorist attacks continues. The cost of “the war on terror” and the massive security measures throughout society has drained hundreds of billions from the national economies that could have been used to rebuild our infrastructure, and reduce our national dept. The terrorists won and continue to win as they affect our lives and our national economy.  We can be certain that the recent pandemic has provided terrorist with another weapon to disseminate fear and confusion. Economic challenges will impact the poor and minority communities making them susceptible to radicalization and extremist activities.  Economic decline can necessitate cuts in military spending, and the budgets for police and fire protection that may provide opportunities for extremist groups to better organize and plan activities.  Criminal gangs and cartels should be included as terrorists, and can be expected to grow in power and audacity as law-and-order weakens.  In third world nations the gangs and cartels are the true government, controlling the black-market, and offering safety for a price. Only a vigilant, prepared and armed population can prevent the rise of terror and crime in the future

Conclusion

The possibility of a world-wide disaster can no-longer be in doubt, as one of the above disasters has already occurred and several others are developing as we speak.  Each threat scenario affects the probability and potential severity of the others.  Some of the above threats occur suddenly, while others develop insidiously over the years. At this point only the most foolish would ignore these threats and fail to make a concerted effort to avoid, mitigate and survive their effects. While it is difficult to predict which one will happen next or in what order such events could occur, but we must all recognize the fragility of our civilization and necessity of constant vigilance and dedicated preparedness.

The new May/June PANDEMIC SPECIAL ISSUE of American Survivor has been posted as a PDF to the Members Only/American Survivor page for paid members.  

Also:  the new Live Free USA Members Handbook PDF has been posted to the Members Only/Special Publications page.  This is a 62 page document that includes information about Live Free's mission, operations, history and organization as well as practical survival and preparedness articles from over fifty years of experience as America's first and best survival preparedness education organization.  The contents is listed below.

Section One Membership

1. History of Live Free USA
2. Members Pledge
3. Ten Foundations of Membership
4. Bylaws Abridged and Explained
5. The Live Free Shield (logo)
6. The Live Free Motto
7. The Brotherhood of the Survival Pack
8. The Order of the Firewatch
9. We Are Survivalists
10. Personal Declaration of Independence
11. Organizing a Survival Team
12. Live Free Chapters and Affiliated Groups

Section Two Survival and Preparedness

1. Preparedness Overview
2. The Ten Principles of Survival
3. Personal Preparedness Scoresheet
4. Home Safety Checklist
5. Eight Medical Skills
6. Everyday Carry Items List
7. Bedside Drawer List
8. Surviving the First Seventy-two Hours
9. Home Survival Gear List
10. Vehicle Emergency Gear List
11. Outdoor Survival Pack List
12. Get Home Bag List
13. Evacuation Pack List
14. Bugout/Survival Pack List

A printed version will be available later this year.

A world-wide pandemic has been one of the survival challenges addressed in numerous articles in this publication over the past several decades. I will not review all of the information and disinformation related to this specific pandemic event, but must assure readers that it will not be the last. Overpopulation, urbanization and massive international travel virtually guarantee new pandemics within the next decade or two.  I will remind all that scientists calculate the earth capacity to support civilized human population at around four-billion, while we have over seven-billion.  At some point nature and human nature will begin to put the brakes on population growth and probably reduce it significantly.  In fact some studies predicted that the population at the end of the twenty-first century may be close to what it was at the start of the twentieth-century. Pandemics, famines, shortages, and conflicts are inevitable. Our interlocked centralized systems create a domino effect that has been clearly demonstrated during the Coronavirus pandemic event.  Even while the actual number of infections and deaths was far below that of the common flu, panic has generated a stock market crisis, and even some violence and looting. At this writing it is difficult to anticipate the full impact of this current pandemic, but I will enumerate the potential for this or for the next pandemic.

• Hospitals and medical facilities will be overwhelmed leaving those who need care for other medical emergencies to suffer or even die.
• Hospitals, nursing homes, schools, and clinics will be hot-beds for transmission of the pathogen, and will be abandoned or quarantined.
• Those requiring life sustaining care or medications may be unable to obtain it.
• Medications, respirators, and cleaning supplies will be unavailable.
• The shortages of respirators and protective clothing for workers in the chemical, medical and construction trades will result in layoffs and unemployment and the unavailability of products.
• Vital services will be affected as medical personnel, firefighters, and police become ill or stay home to protect their families.
• Delivery of groceries may be slow as drivers are affected by the illness.
• Business will close and the stock market will fall into recession.

If the pandemic is sustained and the mortality rate is high

• The stock market will crash
• Stores and warehouses will be looted
• Civil disorder may break out in urban areas.
• Garbage pickup, water pump maintenance and electrical grid maintenance may be affected by employee absences and civil disorder.
• Political unrest and oppression may develop.

Not all of the above effects may develop this time, but must be anticipated and prepared for.  Of course the chances of another pandemic occurring in a few years after this one are exactly the same as they were before this one, so preparedness is just as important going forward.

Epidemics and pandemics can also be the secondary result of civil unrest, the breakdown of sanitation services, shortages and economic chaos. Even a cyber-attack, electromagnetic pulse, or grid failure could lead to a pandemic and of course there is the potential for a deliberate distribution of pathogens by terrorists or hostile nations.   With that in mind let’s review viral diseases in general and some of the methods for prevention and treatment of viral diseases.

Viruses are much smaller than bacteria and are made up of a material with an exterior protein. Viruses cannot make their own protein like most other cells, and therefore are dependent on a host for survival. Each virus targets a specific body organ such as the lungs, liver or even the blood.  Viruses are not affected by antibiotics.  The best protection against viruses is a strong immune system and good personal hygiene.  While some viruses such as measles, rubella, mumps, and smallpox and polio are preventable through vaccination other are not.  Vaccinations for various forms of flu and pneumonia are only partially effective. The following is only a partial list of the most common viruses.

• Influenza
• Chickenpox
• HIV
• Ebola
• Polio
• Mumps
• Hepatitis
• Shingles
• Lyme disease
• Smallpox
• Measles
• Herpes
• Some types of colds

Viruses can be transmitted from contact with infected animals such as birds, pigs, bats, rodents, dogs, horses. Other viruses can be transmitted from animal bites, and insect bites such as tics, flies, mosquitos and lice.  Human transmission can result from skin contact, oral contact, and sexual contact and close respiratory contact, such as coughing.  Viruses can survive in air for as long as three hours and on surfaces for two-to-three days to infect others who touch them.

Vitamins for Prevention and Treatment

It has been found that low levels of Vitamin D3 resulted in increased vulnerability to cold and flu. A strong correlation has been found between those with TB, and hepatitis C., and Vitamin D3 deficiencies. Vitamin D3 helps the body make an antibiotic protein called cathelicidin that is known to kill viruses, fungi, parasites and bacteria.  During flu season (during an epidemic) it is recommended to take 50,000 IU daily for the first 5-days and then 5,000 to 10.000 daily the thereafter

More than thirty clinical studies have confirmed the antiviral effects of Vitamin C against a wide range of flu viruses.  Vitamin C inactivates the virus while strengthening the immune systems ability to resist the virus.  The general recommendation is 10.000 mg orally, daily, but some stronger viruses’ (like Corona) may require intravenous doses as high as 100,000 to 150,000 mg.  If IV vitamin C is not available a gradual increase of oral Vitamin C up to 50,000 mg may be possible before bowel tolerance is reached.

Herbal Remedies

A variety of studies have shown that some herbal remedies are effective against some viruses.  Elderberry can be effective against influenza A and B.  Astragulus root is effective against the Coxsackie B virus. Licorice root has been use to treat hepatitis C and HIV.  Olive leaf has been proven effective in the treatment of flu, colds, hepatitis C, malaria, Gonorrhea, and tuberculosis.

Other foods that may be effective in prevention and treatment of viral infections include:

• Wild blueberries
• Sprouts
• Cilantro
• Coconut oil
• Garlic
• Ginger
• Sweet potatoes
• Turmeric
• Kale
• Parsley
• Red clover

Non-Viral Infections

It is important to keep in mind that while most epidemic pathogens are viral, and not affected by antibiotics, but other non-viral pathogens such as Streptococcus, Salmonella, E Coli, Tuberculosis, Cholera , and Bubonic plague may beset the infected victim who may have a weakened immune system, be undernourished, or  exposed to poor sanitation.  For this reason antibiotics should still be kept available.  Antibiotics are available from pet supply stores, fish supply stores, and survival supply outlets.  These are exactly the same products as are prescribed for humans, but at a much lower price, without any prescription required. It is advisable to maintain a supply of these, but they are not to be used for viral infections.

Self-prescribed and obtained antibiotics should be used only when no other alternative is available and serious infections and diseases are evident or imminent.  Antibiotics are most effective against various types of plague pathogens that could be the primary source of an epidemic and against many secondary infections common in disasters    Dosages information can be obtained from the internet, the Merck Manual and are based on the type of disease and patient. Yes, in some cases the survivor may be forced to guess and err on the side of more.  Adult dosages of most antibiotics range from 250 mg to 500 mg every 6 to 10 hours.  Dosage decreases with child ages.

Penicillin is the first antibiotic that was developed in 1928.  It is also the longest over-used and some bacteria have become resistant to it.  Penicillin is generally effective against common Staphylococcus and streptococcus infections as well as Clostridium and Listeria genera.  These common bacterial infections would be anticipated in open wounds and contaminated water and food during a long-running disaster.  About 10% of the population may be allergic to penicillin.

Amoxicillin is effective in treating ear infections, strep throat, pneumonia, skin infections, urinary tract infections and other types of bacterial infections.  It also is used for some kinds of stomach infections. It has been used effectively for people exposed to anthrax.  Its effectiveness against pneumonia and skin infections make it an essential survival medication, since these infections are most common in disasters and nuclear events. Amoxicillin should not be given to those who are allergic to penicillin.

Cephalexin is effective against infections of the middle ear, bones, joints, skin and urinary tract. It can also be used against certain kinds of pneumonia and strep throat. Cephalexin is not effective against methicillin-resistant staphylococcus known as MRSA.

The bottles of antibiotics above were purchased from BUDK  at www.BUDK.COM or call 800-543-5061.  Each bottle contains 30 x 250 mg tablets. Penicillin costs $16.99, Amoxicillin costs $12.99 and the Cephalexin cost $14.99.

Conclusions

While the full effects of the current Coronavirus have yet to be determined, we can anticipate that epidemics and pandemics will be part of the threat-matrix that modern, responsible citizens must prepare for.  Government agencies and the health system will never be fully able to anticipate and react to new pathogens, before they spread and affect the general population.  High population densities, combined with global travel, and immigration guarantee even more lethal outbreaks in the future. Ultimately the individual citizen, family and group must take strong independent preparatory and preventive action to survive the direct effects (illness) of an epidemic, but also the greater secondary effects on the economy and society.  A few key preparedness and preventive actions are listed below

• The ability to isolate yourself from human contact to from 30 to 60 days is the most important and effective way to prevent exposure. This requires that you have sufficient water, food, fuel, medications and other critical supplies in advance.  This is sufficient for the any immediate and passing emergency, but an extended and more lethal event could result in the need for far more well developed and equipped survival and evacuation capacities.
• Maintain general health, weight and exercise greatly improves your chances of surviving any illness. Poor eating habits, lack of exercises, smoking, and neglected health maintenance is an invitation to infections.
• Always have plenty of N95 respirators, hand sanitizer, bleach, and disinfectants on hand.
• Good hygiene including frequent hand washing, and avoidance of touching your face is important.
• Frequently clean all frequently touched surfaces such as doorknobs, railings, table tops with a household disinfectant.
• When away from home, clean hands before and after touching shopping carts, door handles, fire arms, money, and other frequently touched surfaces.
• Have a clean handkerchief to cover your mouth when you cough. Carrying a N95 folding respirator is advisable, as you could be caught in a closed space or in proximity to coughers.
• Avoid anyone who has flu-like symptoms or any location (e.g. schools, nursing homes, hospitals) where virus may be more prevalent.
• Avoid large gatherings and close proximity to groups period.
• At the first sign of flu-like symptoms seek medical help. Get tested and take aggressive treatment.  The sooner treatment begins the greater your survival chances will be.
• Support your immune system with supplemental doses of Vitamin C and Vitamin D3 as mentioned above.

Back in 2013  I published an article titled “Viruses Double Trouble for Civilization” in which I pointed out the similar side-effects of a biological virus epidemic and a wide-spread computer virus or cyberattack. My main point was that the psychological, sociological and economic effects of ether one would be more catastrophic than the immediate effect of the biological or technological virus itself. While the full extent and impact of the Coronavirus outbreak has yet to be determined it is already obvious that my original predictions were accurate.  The US and world stock markets are tumbling, oil stock prices have tanked, and the world’s second largest economy has virtual shutdown. China, being a totalitarian, communist, dictatorship has initiated total control of information disseminated on social media and arrested those who disseminate views critical of the government’s response.  Chines resistance organizations claim that the infection and death tolls are being greatly under reported. Foreign Corporations doing business in China or investing there are rethinking their “global economy” operations as there supply chains are broken. Even if this epidemic is controlled, the effects on the global political and economic community will be immense. The Coronavirus has several aspects that are ideal for ether a natural or man-made epidemic pathogen.

• It is new and there are no known cures or vaccinations on-hand or in the pipeline.
• It spreads from person to person though the air, although it is not known how close contact must be or if it remains on surfaces for any length of time.
• It can be spread from a person who has not yet exhibited symptoms and therefor can contact hundreds of people before the carrier become aware that they are ill.

While authorities reassure the public that this virus is less dangerous than the “ordinary flu”, there drastic measures indicate fear, if not panic. N95 facemasks* are sold out and rationed in China and are in high demand throughout the US. All of Chinas neighbors have closed their border, including even North Korea. In the US, participation in large social and sports gatherings has already started to show decline. While this particular outbreak may or may not result in the catastrophic effects of postulated in my original article (below), it will certainly impact the economic and political climate in many ways. The general disaster preparedness and self-reliance steps advocated by Live Free USA together with the ability to stay home without outside contact for from thirty to sixty days must be attained, and maintained by every responsible family.

Original Text from Our 2013 Article

Virus is a derivative of the Latin word for poison.  This is an accurate description of what its electronic and biological forms can do to life and life as we know it.

Introduction

Even if we put aside the obvious threats of a changing climate, crumbling economy and the decline in food, water and energy supplies, there are two major and highly probable disasters that could end civilization as we know it even as we struggle with these other issues. Both of these threats come from destructive entities known as viruses.  The first danger is from the more traditional biological virus that has plagued (pun intended) civilization for centuries. The second is the more recent term “computer virus” that has very recent origins, but is no less of a threat.  These threats are greatly compounded by the highly populated, centralized and technologically depended society that only developed in the latter half of the 20^th century.

Biological Viruses

For the purposes of this discussion we will include viruses and bacterial forms of infectious disease.

Probability and Sources

Most epidemiologists and the Center for Disease Control (CDC) state that it is just a matter of when not if a massive, worldwide epidemic occurs.  Based on the actions of governmental agencies in planning and stockpiling medications, this is their worst fear.  The combination of population densities and world travel guarantee that any virulent and potent biological agent will spread and be out of control before it is even detected.  The sudden emergence and rapid spread of the Zika virus is indicative of this potential. Plagues in medieval Europe and Asia killed from one to two thirds of the populations before the thinned population and surviving immune systems burned them out.  Modern medications and sanitation systems have reduced the occurrences and severity of plagues for the past few centuries, but these very defenses’ have created the probability of truly widespread and disastrous epidemics in our time.  The combination of an over-populated world located mainly in over concentrated cities and decades of being over protected with disinfectants and over medicated with antibiotics leaves us like a growth medium in a Petri dish with weakened immune systems Any new virus will find a “target rich environment” in today’s populations.  Modern mass transportation means that every one of us comes into contact with the biological residue left by hundreds and thousands of people.  Potential illness and death fly from Europe and Africa, take the buses and the train, ride the elevator and waist on shopping carts, door handles and products.  Of course most of these biological agents are harmless or cause only minor illnesses, but sooner or later (probably sooner) one of them will not be so harmless.  There are millions of unknown viruses and mutations that have not been recognized, much less prepared for that could take root.  Medical laboratories are continuing to experiment with various biological agents in their efforts to cure or treat existing diseases.  Many of these altered viruses would find the human body with no defenses if accidentally released.  Smallpox (Variola Major) was declared “eradicated” in 1980 and inoculations ended, but there are small stocks of the virus kept by the Russians and the US.  There may still be other hidden reserves. We now have a population with no immunities. An accidental release of such material or the deliberate spread of them by some unstable employees could end life as we know it or even life period.  And of course there are the rogue nations and terrorists who already have a variety of potent biological agents available.  Tuberculosis is still common in the third world nations and is highly contagious. Massive refuge populations are now flowing from those places to Europe and America. Many of these people may be carriers.  When you consider the above   realities, it is truly a miracle the biological “big one” has not struck already.  Being involved in the Emergency Medical Systems and community response planning for urban areas, I can tell you that the plans won’t work and they know it.

Impact and Effect

The obvious impact of a wide spread epidemic would be the disablement and deaths of millions or hundreds of millions of people.  Even if we assume a “best case” epidemic of say ten to twenty percent fatalities and fifty to sixty percent disabilities of two to six weeks duration the civilization still collapses and millions more die as a result of violence, starvation, cold, heat, and of other diseases.   Because of our highly dependent and technologically sensitive world, the lack of people to sustain critical systems would quickly demolish order and safety.  No one to respond to fires or police calls.  No-one to keep sanitation pumps, water pumps and electrical systems running.  No-one to deliver food, medications or fuel.  No-one to keep the virtual money in the banking and financial systems from evaporating.  They will all be sick, dead or at least home protecting their own families.

The resulting desperation and shortages will have the cities in flames and the streets like war zones within weeks.  The effects of failed water systems and sanitation (human waste and garbage) will initiate diseases like Cholera, Typhus, Malaria, and a host of other viral and bacterial infections.

* N95 Dust Mist masks are effective protection against most airborne pathogens when worn properly. They are available at most pharmacies and hardware stores.  Live Free USA has constantly recommended them as “every day carry” (pocket or purse) items and stocking a dozen or more at home.